Artificial intelligence is helping more than 50 NHS organisations to predict when their emergency departments will be at their busiest this winter. Available to all NHS Trusts, the A&E demand forecasting tool is helping Trusts to plan how many people are likely to need emergency care and treatment on any given day. For staff, this enables smarter planning for shifts and bed space in the long-term, reducing last-minute pressure thanks to clearer forecasts which spot potential bottlenecks. For patients, it will ultimately mean shorter waiting times during busy periods.
This winter has already seen record flu cases putting additional pressure on emergency departments. The Royal College of Nursing has already warned of a “devastating” winter ahead for patients as waiting times in A&E departments following a decision to admit continue to rise.
Potential for positive impact
The AI tool is being constantly trained on seasonal health data so it will help to spot surges in demand for health services before they happen – giving hospitals the opportunity to put staff in the right place at the right time.
The tool uses data to highlight regular pinch points where demand is likely to be higher across the course of the year. It considers a range of factors, from Met Office temperature forecasts and hospital admissions through to which days of the week are busier than others. This data then produces forecasts for the coming days and weeks which hospitals can use to more effectively manage resources.
This AI tool is part of the Prime Minister’s AI Exemplars programme – putting AI to use to improve public services, modernise outdated systems and make the services people interact with smarter, more efficient and fit for the modern age.
Health Innovation Minister, Dr Zubir Ahmed says: “The AI revolution is here and we are arming our NHS staff with the latest technology to help slash A&E waits for patients this busy winter period.
“Innovations like these will help hospitals manage winter pressure and prioritise resources over the coming months as we continue to battle a tidal wave of flu.”
Early feedback from staff has been positive. Hospital managers have praised its impact in supporting them to make better decisions about staffing and capacity, meaning patients can then move through the system more efficiently.
The AI demand forecasting tool is currently available to all NHS Trusts in England, with 170 active users across 50 organisations each month. It is available through the NHS Federated Data Platform.
About the AI Exemplars programme
• AI Diagnostics provides tools to support clinicians to identify conditions such as lung cancer from scans, helping diagnose patients more quickly and reducing the diagnostic backlog.
• AI-assisted discharge summaries will help patients get home to family and off busy wards more quickly, with AI used to help write the documents that are needed to discharge people from hospital. Clinicians retain final control and approval over content.
• The Education Content Store pools government documents including curriculum guidance, lesson plans and anonymised pupil assessments so AI companies can train their tools to generate accurate, high-quality content. The content, such as tailored, creative lesson plans and workbooks, can then be reliably used in schools – freeing teachers up from admin so they can spend more time in front of the whiteboard.
• GOV.UK chat, an AI-powered chatbot, provides a new way for the public to interact with government. GOV.UK Chat takes a user’s question and, using relevant GOV.UK pages, generates an instant answer, the way users would write or speak in everyday life.
